Is it Time to Enter the Market with Projected Rate Cuts in 2024?

text

1] Will borrowing costs decrease in 2024?

According to The Straits Times on Jan 2, 2024, lower borrowing costs in Singapore is expected in 2024 as US Federal Reserve signalled it could cut rates in 2024 and beyond.

Source: The Straits Times, 2 Jan 2024 – Lower borrowing costs in Singapore expected in 2024

2] The Federal Reserve System (FED) is likely to cut rates gradually in the medium term

Currently FED Funds rate is around 5.25 – 5.5%. In 2024, FED is expected to cut rates 3 times or 75 basis points hence the median projected could come down to 4.5 – 4.75%. In 2025, another 4 cuts or 100 basis point reaching 3.5 – 3.75%. In 2026, another 3 cuts or 75 basis points to 2.75 – 3%. Into the long term, median projected FED Funds rate to hover around 2.5%.

Each dot represents a FED governor’s forecast, blue dots represent median projection as at 13 December 2023 Meeting. Source: CME Group, Federal Reserve, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

FED Funds rates are closely correlated to SORA rates. As FED Funds rates trend downwards, SORA rates would also follow suit. SORA rates are currently around 3.7%.

Mortgages in Singapore are pegged to SORA, a decrease in SORA rates would lead to a decrease in financing costs, spurring interest in real estate. Homebuying activities and transactions are expected to receive a boost in 2024.

Source: MAS, URA, ERA Research and Market Intelligence; Based on interest rate on the last day of the quarter. Private property transactions include landed, non-landed and EC transactions but exclude enbloc.

The past 14 years (2008 – 2022) of low interest environment has supported home buying activities, transaction volumes for Singapore private property had stayed high during periods of low SORA rates.

ELIAS ER

CEA No: R067038A

Phone: +6588019365

ERA REALTY NETWORK PTE LTD

Estate Agent's Licence Number: L3002382K